This report is part of the RAND Corporation perspective series. Funding for this venture was provided by philanthropic contributions from RAND supporters and income from operations. RAND perspectives present informed perspective on a timely topic that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. The greatest limitation of Russia's Middle East strategy is that it is not Russia, but the Middle Eastern states themselves that determine the depth of their relations with Moscow. 02 March 2016: Russia’s strategy in the Middle East and its implications for the region by ECFR Events. All RAND perspectives undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. Communications Officer Kadri Liik @KadriLiik on Twitter. It was proposed to exchange views on the situation in Syria, Libya and Yemen.”. Russia has goals, but to Western observers they appear to be either transactional or, in the longer term, generalizable to the point that they constitute broad precepts rather than global, regional, or state-specific strategies. Russia’s Waning Influence. Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria, which caught many by surprise, seemingly heralded Moscow’s triumphant return to the Middle East. Now, there is a reason why Moscow is bringing up issues like Syria and Libya. by. Does the fact that Russia outplayed the United States on Syria suffice as evidence of Moscow’s “grand strategy” for the broader region? Sladden, James, Becca Wasser, Ben Connable, and Sarah Grand-Clement, Environmental and Natural Resource Management, Homeland Security Operational Analysis Center, Rethinking the U.S. The 2015 Russian military intervention in Syria was a pivotal moment for Moscow’s Middle East policy. While Russia does have a long-term strategy in the Middle East, it is freighted with significant restraints and constraints. Russia in the Middle East: Part Five. Russian airpower saved the Assad regime from certain defeat. And I just want to TASS, the largest Russian news agency, has reported that UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan would hold talks with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, in Moscow on Monday.This is a part of the larger Russian strategy to isolate Turkey in the Middle East by pitting all stakeholders like Iran, France, the UAE, Cyprus and the US against Ankara. All the alliances that Trump stitched so painstakingly begin crumbling as Biden era begins. Russia’s Middle East Power Play By Vance Serchuk. TASS, the largest Russian news agency, has reported that UAE Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan would hold talks with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, in Moscow on Monday. When Russia’s resources and opportunities are scarce and engagements with Middle Eastern states decrease, influence will decrease accordingly. Approach to the World, How Law Enforcement Can Mitigate Bias in Machine Learning Decision Aids, Helping Mothers Return to Work Is a Gender Equality Issue, Who Gets Care When Hospitals Are Overwhelmed? Before doing anything, policymakers must recognize reality: The Russians are not going away, they have a strategy to weaken the West, and it starts in the Middle East. Diplomatic subtlety and astute foreign policy manoeuvres are rarely attributed to the Kremlin. So, Russia’s action plan is to simmer down tensions between the UAE and Iran and pit them against an isolated Turkey instead. Key Words: Middle East; Russian Energy Strategy; US and the Middle East Energy is the blood of the modern industrial society and a vital factor which has the impact on the world economy and national security. Turkey and Israel must now accept the presence of Russian troops on their borders. Your email address will not be published. And Putin has been more than happy to play up the dissensions that have emerged between Ankara and Tehran. Russia's Strategy for the Middle East: Stabilize, Revitalize, Create Chaos. But Russia had in fact been edging its way back into the region since at least 2007, emphasising political and economic relations over security relationships. Moscow and Ankara are at the brink of a major conflict, given Erdoğan’s attempts to rake up Turkic sentiment in regions like Central Asia and Azerbaijan to eat into Moscow’s former Soviet space. More importantly, Russia wants to shift the attention of the leading Arab power- the UAE towards Turkish belligerence. Russia, trying to restore its great power status, accrues influence in the Middle East. The authors contend that while Russia may not have a clear ends-driven regional strategy, its actions suggest it is applying a generalized, functional strategy: It constantly seeks to improve its short-term economic, military, and political advantages while reducing the short-term advantages of prospective adversaries. The final component of Russian policy towards the Middle East, as emphasized by Russian workshop participants and Rus-sian literature, is support for existing state structures and govern-ments against both external intervention and internal insurrection. As we discussed earlier this year, Russia has... Israel: Without a Significant Reset, Democracy Will Continue to Suffer. Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria, which caught many by surprise, seemingly heralded Moscow’s triumphant return to the Middle East. Russia is intensifying its political and military involvement in Libya as part of a new Middle East strategy, which has several objectives. This Perspective seeks to identify the important elements of Russian interests in the Middle East beyond Syria, to define the nature of Russian engagement in the region, and to describe the contours of a Russian strategy in the Middle East. 25 Oct 2018 | Connor Dilleen Much has been written about Russia’s ambitions in Syria and the Middle East, and there are numerous elements to Moscow’s strategy in the region. Russia’s Middle East Strategy Egypt: Increased Dealmaking Will Likely Harm the United States and Allies. With change sweeping across the region, Russia will be unable to formulate a meaningful, lasting strategy in the foreseeable future, he added. What are the elements of Russian interests in the Middle East beyond Syria? This widespread narrative originated, in particular, in the Syrian crisis and the Russian military intervention in the country. Russia’s Middle East Power Play By Vance Serchuk. Russia's Strategy in the Middle East Russia's Strategy in the Middle East . During the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, French President Emmanuel Macron helped in activating the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, which is led jointly by the US, France and Russia. How justified are these expectations? Largely absent from the Middle East for the better part of the previous two decades, Russia intervened to save Bashar al-Assad’s regime and reasserted itself as a major player in the region’s power politics. Russia seeks to be able to effectively influence and shape outcomes, but a lack of means limits what it can achieve. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. She said that when Russia started intervening in Syria, it was like a shock and awe campaign. Russia’s central relationships in the Middle East are with three non-Arab states—Iran, Turkey, and Israel—all of which are stable by comparison with their Arab neighbors. Russia has goals, but to Western observers they appear to be either transactional or, in the longer term, generalizable to the point that they constitute broad precepts rather than global, regional, or state-specific strategies. While Russia does have a long-term strategy in the Middle East, it is freighted with significant restraints and constraints. Over the last few years, the myth of a Russian “return” to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has captured increasing attention from policy-makers all over the area and beyond, as well as the academic community. Over the last few years, the myth of a Russian “return” to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has captured increasing attention from policy-makers all over the area and beyond, as well as the academic community. The title of this seminar/workshop is “Russia’s Strategy in the Middle East.” And to me that suggest two things: one, that there is one, a strategy for the Middle East, and that, two, that other countries also have other strategies in the Middle East. The Freakish Fusion Of Anti-Zionism and Russophilia Russia’s strategy in the Middle East is to stay closer to all other players in the region than they are to one another. Russia’s 2015 intervention in Syria, which caught many by surprise, seemingly heralded Moscow’s triumphant return to the Middle East. With the Russian intervention in Syria, Russia is militarily back in the Middle East for the first time since the Cold War. About Vance Serchuk September 12, 2019 10:32 AM. Russia’s new “grand strategy” in the Middle East. Russia’s Waning Influence. Recurring confrontations with the West are one of the main factors compelling Russia to intensify its activities in the Middle East. Sladden, James, Becca Wasser, Ben Connable, and Sarah Grand-Clement, Russian Strategy in the Middle East. From sidelines to centre stage . Cyprus, being a member of the European Union, can do Russia’s bidding within the Brussels-based body. Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. Ilan Berman is Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, DC and a member of the Associated Faculty at Missouri State University’s Department of Defense and Strategic Studies. Even when it comes to the democratic world, represented by the EU and NATO, Putin has managed to outdo Turkey. September 29, 2020. High-level visits and arms sales will not achieve those ends. The world that Trump gave us, but Biden can snatch from us, China may have given Turkey its vaccines in exchange of Uyghur Muslims to work at its sweatshops, ‘Honour your commitments,’ Thousands of illegal immigrants set out to invade the US after Biden promises citizenship to 11 million, Twitter’s alternative Parler was growing fast. The Middle East states have the greatest power and agency to determine the viability of any Russian strategy. Within the EU also, Moscow has been able to drum up sentiment against Turkish belligerence in the Eastern Mediterranean. This is a part of the larger Russian strategy to isolate Turkey in the Middle East by pitting all stakeholders like Iran, France, the UAE, Cyprus and the US against Ankara. Moscow is bringing together friends and foes to a common objective- combating Erdoğan’s belligerent Turkey. September 8, 2020. Russia’s military intervention in Syria has the potential to shift the long-term geostrategic outlook for the Middle East. Jon Alterman: In March of 2020, as the much of the world was shutting down in the face of Covid-19, a price war between Russia and OPEC was heating up. In 2018, China announced billions in loans for the region, but only $100 million in assistance. Russia's multifaceted diplomatic relations and recent interventionist trend are likely to be superseded by longer-term economic, energy, and arms deals. Sunday, September 10, 2017 at … Historically, Russia’s main contacts in the Middle East used to be Turkey and Iran. Cyprus, for instance, coordinates with Moscow to pressurise a belligerent Ankara. This widespread narrative originated, in particular, in the Syrian crisis and the Russian military intervention in the country. Official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova disclosed that the Ministers of the two countries intend to discuss the developing situation in the Middle East and North Africa. Jon Alterman: Natasha Hall is now my colleague at CSIS, but in 2015 she was interviewing Syrian refugees in the field, first for the U.S. government and then for a U.S.-based non-governmental organization. Please enter your username or email address to reset your password. In the quarter century after the end of the Cold War, Russia and Turkey made a spectacular transition from age-old adversity to mutual respect and understanding, despite the many differences. Erdoğan’s Azeri separatist narrative, following the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, has caused fissures in the Iran-Turkey relationship. This perception is at least partly accurate. But Russia had in fact been edging its way back into the region since at least 2007, emphasising political and economic relations over security relationships. In the Middle East, Russian propaganda fuels conspiracy thinking, feeding on the region's existing proclivities. As president, Barack Obama launched … But Putin might have just played a sharp diplomatic move on Ankara, by isolating Erdoğan’s Turkey in all conflict areas including the Eastern Mediterranean, Libya, South Caucasus and Syria. Tagged #russia #syria #us #mena. Russian strategy in Syria and the Middle East is clearly marked by shaping regional security and politics thru time-tested means of forward deployed military forces on land and sea, economic and security assistance, and bi-lateral training exercises taking place in both regional states and Russia itself. Lack of Strategy: Twenty years after the end of the Cold War, Russia has not developed a coherent foreign policy towards the Middle East, said Carnegie’s Marwan Muasher. But Russia’s Middle East strategy holds clear limitations and has real practical drawbacks. Ilan Berman. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (R) meets with Khalifa Haftar eastern Libya-based military commander at the Russian Foreign Ministry's Reception House in Moscow, Russia … The Kremlin has been careful not to overcommit. Today, France and the US are at loggerheads with an unworthy NATO member- Turkey. Executive Summary. What is Russia's strategy in the Middle East? Russia is taking advantage of the power vacuum created by America’s desire to disengage from the Middle East. RSS. Required fields are marked *. In 2015, Russia launched a military intervention. Over that same period, Russia has provided less than $100 million in humanitarian aid to the Middle East. Russia’s strategy in the Middle East and its implications for the region. The involvement in Libya is an extension of the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) policy, as presented in a strategy paper on Russian foreign policy in the autumn of 2016. Russia has therefore succeeded in cornering Turkey on every front. Your email address will not be published. Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND; Ph.D. This website uses cookies. About Vance Serchuk September 12, 2019 10:32 AM ... the growing influence of the Kremlin as a strategic force across the greater Middle East… Russia's strategic objectives in the Middle East and North Africa : hearing before the Subcommittee on the Middle East and North Africa of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, House of Representatives, One Hundred Fifteenth Congress, first session, June 15, 2017 The region occupies a special role in Russia’s strategy for strengthening its producers’ presence in the international oil and gas markets. Therefore, Russia is trying to drive regional sentiment against Turkey. The Russian Federation has already won the war in Syria and is, therefore, the hegemonic power throughout the Middle East. Russia seeks to be Turkey and Israel must now accept the presence Russian... 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